USDT to IDR-Krisis mata wing di Asia mulai yang bermula pada tahun 1997 telab memunculkan perdebatan menimpa hakekat ikatan antara kebijakan moneter serta mEal ubah. Bagi pandaugan tradisional, kebijakan moneter ketat butuh dicoba buat mempertahankan nilai ubah. Pada realitasnya, kebijakan moneter ketat ialah kebijakan yang umum dijalankan di banyak negeri Asia pada dikala menjelang krisis. Tetapi demikian, pemikiran revisioms melaporkan kalau kebijakan moneter bisa memunculkan dampak yang bertentangan dengan yang diharapkan( perverse eJJèci) yang malah menimbulkan depresiasi nilai ubah serta penyusutan cadangan internasional yang lebih lanjut. Riset ini menganalisis ikatan kebijakan moneter serta tekanan pasar valas di Indonesia sepanjang masa¡crisis mata duit. Secara khusus, riset mi bertujuan buat:
(1) menganalisis respons kebijakan moneter terhadap tekanan pasar valas, serta;
(2) menganalisis dampak kebijakan moneter terhadap tekanan pasar valas. Menjajaki Girton serta Roper( 1997), tekanan pasar valas( EMP) didefinisikan bagaikan penjumlahan depresiasi mata duit serta aliran keluar cadangan intemasional( yang diskala dengan duit mti). EMP di asunisikan bagaikan dimensi yang lebih pas buat krisis mata duit sebab mencerminkan balk pergerakan nilai ubah ataupun cadangan internasional. Sernentara itu, kebijakan moneter diukur bersumber pada perkembangan kredit dalam negeri serta pergantian selisih nilai ubah. Buat keperluan analisis, riset ini memakai uji sebab- akibat Granger serta guna impulse- respons yang diperoLeh dañ ditaksir model VAR. Penemuan penemuan yang merupakan bagaikan berikut:
(1) Otontas moneter merespons peningkatan tekanan pasar valas dengan melaksanakan perluasan kredit domestik— sehubungan dengan dorongan likuiditas kepada sistem perbankan— serta dengan menaìkkan suku bunga— sehubungan dengan menirigkatnya premium resiko maupun upaya buat menahan depresiasi mata duit yang lebih lanjut;( 2) Inovasi terhadap perkembangan kredit dalam negeri memunculkan dampak yang positif serta signifikan terhadap EMP. Sebaliknya inovasi terhadap pergantian selislh suku bunga memmbulkan dampak negatif terhadap EMP, tetapi dampak tersebut tidak signifikan. I3ahkan, ada gejala kalau suku bunga besar cenderung memperparah EMP. Bersumber pada temuan- temuan tersebut disimpulkan kalau:
(1) ada kontradiksi dalam langkah kebijakan moneter dalam rangka menanggulangi peningkatan EMP. Apabila dilihat serta sisi suku bunga. kebijakan moneter terkesan ketat, tetapi apabila dilihat serta sisi kredÃt dalam negeri malah Ionggar. Kebijakan moneter yang dijalankan bukanlah seketat yang diperkirakan;
(2) penalangan likuiditas sistem perbanican dengan perluasan kredt dalam negeri membuat EMP terus menjadi memburuk.
Recent Asian currency crises that began in July 1997 has raised an important debate on the nature of the relationship between monetaty policy and exchange rate. According to traditional view, tight monetary policy is necessaiy to defend the exchange rate. Indeed, this has been the orthodoxy fòr many countries in Asia prior to the currency crises. However, revisionist view argues that tight monetary policy unleashes a perverse effect that actually leads to further depreciation of exchange rate as well as depletion in international reserve. This study examines the relationship between exchange market pressure( EMP) and monetary policy during the currency crises in Indonesia. Following Girton serta Roper( 1977), the exchange market pressure( EMP) is defined as the sum of exchange rate depreciation and reserve outflows( scaled by base money). It is assumed thatËMP is a more suitable indicator for currency crises since it reflects both movements in the international reserve holdings and the exchange rate. Meanwhile, the stance of monetary policy is measured by changes in domestic credit( scaled by base money) and changes in the interest rates differential. Specifically, this study has two objectives:
(1) to analyze the response of monetary policy to exchange market pressure, and;
(2) to analyze the effects of monetary policy on the exchange market pressure. For the purpose of analysis, this study uses the Granger causality test and impulse- response function based on an estimated VAR model. The findings are as follows:
(1) Monetary authority responds to increase of EMP by expanding domestic credit due to liquidity support for banking system— and by increasing interest rate— due to increasing risk premium or due to an effort to stem futher depreciation of the exchange rate;
(2) An inovation to domestic credit growth has a positive and significant effect on EMP. Meanwhile, an inovation to change in interest rate differential has a negative effect on EMP, but the effect is not significant. Indeed., there is an indication that higher interest rate tends to worsenËMP. Based on the findings, this study concludes that:
(1) there is a contradiction in the stance of the monetary policy in dealing with ncreasing EMP. While it is seemed to be tighted based on the interest rate, but is also seemed to be loosed based on the domestic credit. This implies that the monetary policy may be not as“tight†as expected;
(2) an attemp to bailing out banking system liquidity by expanding domestic credit makes exchange market pressures even worse.
